We answer questions like
- What impact is this work likely to have over time?
- What assumptions are we relying on, and how robust are they?
- What could happen under different scenarios or investment choices?
- How can we quantify outcomes that are hard to measure directly?
- How do we make decisions when data is incomplete or impacts are long-term?
How it works
We develop impact models that represent how change is expected to happen over time. This includes mapping the relationships between activities, behaviour change, and outcomes, and making explicit the assumptions that underpin expected impact.
We combine observed data with modelled relationships to build a more complete picture of both current and future outcomes. Our models allow you to explore different scenarios, test sensitivity to key assumptions, and understand how changes in design, scale, or delivery may affect impact. All models are tailored to your context, data availability, and programme maturity, and are designed to be transparent and usable for decision-making.
What this helps you do
Understand the future impact beyond what you can currently observe.
See how current activity is expected to translate into future outcomes.
Test assumptions and explore different scenarios before committing resources.
Make informed investment and design decisions.
Why us?
Our models are grounded in how programmes actually work. We focus on building representations of impact that reflect real-world dynamics. We are also deliberate about transparency and usability. We make assumptions explicit, communicate uncertainty clearly, and ensure outputs can be understood and used by decision-makers, not just technical specialists.
“Impact modelling is not only about getting insights into the future; but seeing the impacts of current activities and attributing activities to change.”
Karen Mitchelmore
Scarlatti
“Impact modelling adds quantitative rigour to our work, and provides quantitative insight and analytics.”
Karen Mitchelmore
Scarlatti
Looking to understand what impact is likely in the future?
Talk to our team about modelling scenarios to support confident decision-making.
